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BCR sports editor Kevin Hieronymus projects the seeds for the upcoming Class 1A and 2A boys basketball subsectionals based on strength of schedule and head-to-head play against the field.
The seeds are scheduled to be announced at 4 p.m. Thursday at IHSA.org with the regional pairings coming out at the same time Friday.
Marengo Subsectional A
No. 1 Seneca (23-5) – The Irish are an interesting study. They have beat the only team in the field they have played, Hall, 69-45 in their season opener. The Irish have played just seven games (5-2) against Class 2A schools with losses to Rockridge and Monticello, picking up 18 wins (18-2) against Class A teams. They lost to 3A Streator 54-37 on Tuesday without top gun Paxton Giertz (27.0 ppg), who rolled an ankle in practice Monday.
No. 2 Bureau Valley (19-9) – The Storm have come on strong, winners of seven of it past eight and 14 of 17, including a 50-47 win at Hall on Saturday. They are 3-1 against the field, including wins over Oregon and E-P, and the loss coming at the hands of rival Princeton at the Colmone Classic. BV wrapped up a 11-0 run in its first season in the Lincoln Trail with wins over Annawan and Monmouth United.
No. 3 Mendota (17-8) – The Trojans are 7-3 against the field with a pair of wins over Princeton, followed by a most-recent 24-point loss to the Tigers and two wins over Hall. The Trojans have lost twice to Rock Falls.
No. 4 Princeton (14-12) – Looks can be deceiving when it comes to the Tigers' overall record and record (5-4) against the sectional field. They had a stretch of five games without senior all-stater Noah LaPorte and lost them all. They are 11-4 since LaPorte’s return and winners of their past five, including wins over Riverdale, Ottawa, Mendota and Byron, as well as Rock Falls and Bureau Valley. PHS has played seven 3A schools (3-4). The Tigers are easily among the top 3-4 teams in the subsectional, but their record may not get them there. Princeton will host a regional just 15 miles away from the site at BV.
No. 5 Riverdale (17-9) – The Rams have lost to Princeton (67-60) while taking two over E-P and one from Morrison and Hall (69-41), standing 4-1 against the field.
No. 6 Rock Falls (18-7) – The Rockets beat Mendota twice in a five-day period while losing to Princeton (60-52) and Oregon (55-53) in their only matchups with sectional teams.
No. 7 Sandwich (17-11) – The Indians lead the Kishwaukee River Conference (10-2) and have lost their only matchup to a sectional opponent, Mendota (43-30).
No. 8 Oregon (16-13) – The Hawks have wins over Rock Falls and Morrison with an overtime loss to Bureau Valley (64-63) in a three-game stretch in January.
No. 9 Hall (11-14) – The Red Devils stand 3-6 against the field with two wins over Princeton and a third game coming Friday, two losses to Mendota and losses to Seneca (69-45) and to Riverdale (69-41).
No. 10 Morrison (9-19) – The Mustangs are 0-4 facing sectional teams with losses to Mendota, Riverdale, E-P and Oregon.
No. 11 Erie-Prophetstown (8-15) – The Panthers have won just two of six meetings against the field with wins over Morrison and a split against Hall.
No. 12 Aurora Central Catholic (4-25) – The Chargers are rather an odd pick for this subsectional, located 78 miles from the closest regional site with no games against sectional teams.
Projected regional pairings: At Bureau Valley: No. 2 BV, No. 3 Mendota, No. 5 Riverdale, No. 6 Rock Falls, No. 10 Morrison, No. 11 E-P. At Princeton: No. 1 Seneca, No. 4 Princeton, No. 7 Sandwich, No. 8 Oregon, No. 9 Hall, No. 12 ACC.
Pecatonica Subsectional A
No. 1 Lanark Eastland (24-3) – The Hawks are a clear-cut favorite with a 11-0 record against the field. Two of their losses came to state-ranked and undefeated Pecatonica.
No. 2 Annawan (20-5) – The Braves have lost their past two games, falling to Bureau Valley and Abingdon/Avon.
No. 3 Galva (20-6) – The Wildcats are 4-1 against sectional teams with wins over LaMoille, DePue, Amboy and Wethersfield and a loss to Annawan.
No. 4 Forreston (17-10) – The Cardinals are 4-1 against the sectional field, including two wins over Milledgeville and a 60-45 loss to Eastland.
No. 5 Sterling Newman (15-14) – Ten of the Comets' 14 losses have come to Class 2A schools. They own an early 69-65 win over Byron. The Comets are 2-1 against sectional teams with wins over Polo and Amboy and a 55-45 loss to Eastland.
No. 6 Fulton (14-14) – The Steamers have lost to Eastland while splitting games vs. Forreston.
No. 7 Polo (12-13) – The Marcos have beat AFC twice, lost to Amboy (57-47), Fulton by 34 points and twice to Forreston by a combined 104 points.
No. 8 St. Bede (12-16) – The Bruins fell 79-75 in overtime to LaMoille on Tuesday. They also won another overtime game over Amboy (61-55) last week and an earlier win over DePue, their only other games against sectional teams.
No. 9 Amboy (10-15) – The Clippers just lost to St. Bede 61-52 in overtime. They have also lost twice to Eastland by a combined 73 points, split with AFC and beat LaMoille twice. Amboy is a regional host.
No. 10 Hiawatha (9-15) – The Hawks have split games with LaMoille and AFC, standing 3-3 against the field.
No. 11 Milledgeville (7-18) – The Missiles are 3-8 against the field, including two losses to each Eastland and Forreston while defeating Amboy and sweeping AFC.
No. 12 Ashton-Franklin Center (7-22) – The Raiders have lost twice to Eastland with losses to Milledgeville (2), Polo and Amboy while defeating West Carroll.
No. 13 Wethersfield (6-21) – The Geese have won just one (DePue) of six games against sectional teams.
No. 14 LaMoille (7-21) – The Lions are fresh off a 79-75 overtime win over St. Bede with a split against Hiawatha and a pair of losses to neighbor Amboy and one to Galva.
No. 15 Savanna West Carroll (5-19) – The Thunder are 3-3 against the field with a win over DePue and split with Milledgeville. West Carroll is a regional host.
No. 16 DePue (2-21) – The Little Giants have lost their last 10 games.
Projected regional pairings: At Amboy: No. 2 Annawan, No. 3 Galva, No. 8 St. Bede, No. 9 Amboy, No. 10 Hiawatha, No. 13 Wethersfield, No. 15 LaMoille, No. 16 DePue. At West Carroll: No. 1 Eastland, No. 4 Forreston, No. 5 Newman, No. 6 Fulton, No. 7 Polo, No. 11 Milledgeville, No. 12 AFC, No. 15 West Carroll