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As the old maxim goes, nothing is certain in life but death and taxes.
But for me, a third thing could almost always be added to that list: most teams that make the playoffs will likely be making a return trip the following years.
Certainly there are always a few new teams that would break into the field on a year-to-year basis, but the percentages have always been fairly stable and you could almost always count about an 80% return rate from year-to-year.
In fact there were several seasons where that percentage pushed 85%.
But in the gap between the 2021 and 2022 seasons there was a crack in that facade, for the first time since the field expanded to 256 teams, as that percentage dipped below 75% at 73.82%.
It dipped again between 2022 and 2023, albeit microscopically, as one fewer team (188 of 256) made repeat advancement to the field year over year.
One thing, however, has remained fairly constant throughout: the teams that find themselves at or near the top of each classification remains extremely consistent.
For years, I’ve used what I call a three-year win model to project what the field will look like come October, as well as to try to identify where the classifications breaks will fall. It isn’t a precise science, especially with the percentage of repeat teams continuing to fall, but it does provide a pretty fair estimation of where classification breaks will fall.
Although the model did a less than spectacular job of predicting the makeup of last season’s field, it once again did a very solid job of projecting the classification lines might break.
The model forecasts the 256 teams most likely to reach the postseason based on the performance of the past three full seasons.
NO FORECASTING of what the upcoming season is applied to this projection. Don’t worry, those will come soon after opening night.
The only tool that is used is establishing the three-year win patterns of every program in the state. Another interesting revelation from this year’s numbers is that every season prior to this it took at least 15 wins over the previous three seasons to project as one of the 256 teams that would make the field, this season some teams with just 14 wins over that period made the projected field.
Here’s where the model has the classification breaks landing:
| Class | Projected Enrollment Range |
|---|---|
| Class 1A | up to 288.5 |
| Class 2A | 289.5-387 |
| Class 3A | 387.5-520 |
| Class 4A | 521-848 |
| Class 5A | 849-1289.5 |
| Class 6A | 1290-1784 |
| Class 7A | 1785-2307 |
| Class 8A | 2308 and up |
After establishing the 256-team field, one can put together prospective brackets based on the previous success levels of those programs.
Here are the most successful programs inside the three-year model and which classifications those schools are expected to land in:
| Team | Total Wins | Projected Class |
|---|---|---|
| Lena-Winslow | 39 | 1A |
| Byron | 39 | 2A |
| Loyola | 39 | 8A |
| Camp Point Central | 36 | 1A |
| Wilmington | 36 | 3A |
| Rochester | 36 | 4A |
| Mount Carmel | 35 | 7A |
| Lincoln-Way East | 35 | 8A |
| East St. Louis | 34 | 6A* |
| Tri-Valley | 33 | 2A |
| Mt. Carmel | 33 | 3A |
| Tolono Unity | 33 | 3A |
| IC Catholic | 33 | 4A |
| Sacred Heart Griffin | 33 | 5A |
| Several tied with | 32 |
Here’s a class-by-class breakdown of what looks interesting by using the projected classification break lines:
Class 1A
Enrollment range: Up to 288.5
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 1A: (from closest to bubble from farthest): Belleville Althoff, Morrison, Fulton, Havana, Rockford Lutheran.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A: (from closest to bubble from farthest): Cumberland, Macon Meridian, Clifton Central, Fieldcrest, Oakwood.
Class 2A
Enrollment range: 289.5 to 387
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 1A: (from closest to bubble from farthest): Belleville Althoff, Morrison, Fulton, Havana, Rockford Lutheran.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Cumberland, Macon Meridian, Clifton Central, Fieldcrest, Oakwood.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Pana, Noble/Rowe-Clark, Leo, Trenton Wesclin, Christopher.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Auburn, CICS-Longwood, Marian Central Catholic, Seneca, Erie.
Class 3A
Enrollment range: 387.5 to 520
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Pana, Noble/Rowe-Clark, Leo, Trenton Wesclin, Christopher.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Auburn, CICS-Longwood, Marian Central Catholic, Seneca, Erie.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the large side: Roxana, Tolono Unity, Monmouth, Princeton, Litchfield.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the small side: Paris, Prairie Central, Urban Prep/Bronzeville, Benton, Greenville.
Class 4A
Enrollment range: 521 to 848
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the large side: Roxana, Tolono Unity, Monmouth, Princeton, Litchfield.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the small side: Paris, Prairie Central, Urban Prep/Bronzeville, Benton, Greenville.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the large side: Morris, St. Laurence, Noble/Comer, Geneseo, DePaul Prep.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the small side: Centralia, Rochelle, Brooks, Marian Catholic, Jacksonville
Class 5A
Enrollment range: 849 to 1289.5
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the large side: Morris, St. Laurence, Noble/Comer, Geneseo, DePaul Prep.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the small side: Centralia, Rochelle, Brooks, Marian Catholic, Jacksonville
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the large side: Grayslake North, Burlington Central, Lakes, T.F. North, Benet.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the small side: Antioch, Providence, Danville, Hinsdale South, Kaneland.
Class 6A
Enrollment range: 1290 to 1784
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the large side: Grayslake North, Burlington Central, Lakes, T.F. North, Benet.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the small side: Antioch, Providence, Danville, Hinsdale South, Kaneland.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the large side: Libertyville, Grant, Lake Zurich, Blue Island Eisenhower, Highland Park
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the small side: Shepard, Granite City, Oak Lawn Community, Rockford Auburn, Fenwick
Class 7A
Enrollment range: 1785 to 2307
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the large side: Libertyville, Grant, Lake Zurich, Blue Island Eisenhower, Highland Park
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the small side: Shepard, Granite City, Oak Lawn Community, Rockford Auburn, Fenwick
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the large side: Edwardsville, Proviso West, Glenbard East, Andrew, Round Lake.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 8A on the small side: Glenbard West, Plainfield North, Plainfield South, Bartlett, Maine South.
Class 8A
Enrollment range: 2308 and up
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the large side: Edwardsville, Proviso West, Glenbard East, Andrew, Round Lake.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 8A on the small side: Glenbard West, Plainfield North, Plainfield South, Bartlett, Maine South.