What Chicago’s 2023 mayoral race could mean for northern Illinois

As Mayor Lori Lightfoot hopes to win a second term, the outcome of Chicago’s upcoming mayoral election could affect millions of Illinois residents without a say in who leads the nation’s third largest city.

Whether it’s concerns about topics such as crime, economic development or public transit, or even the future home of the Chicago Bears, residents and officials across northern Illinois are keeping an eye on how Chicago’s next mayor might sway any potential new policies that could affect them both at home and while visiting the city for work or play.

“The city of Chicago is the economic powerhouse for definitely northern Illinois, and I’d honestly say for Illinois,” Kane County Board Chair Corinne Pierog said. “Whatever the city does, good or bad, it impacts the surrounding counties.”

A crowded field of nine candidates is running for the city’s top office in Tuesday’s Chicago mayoral election.

Recent polls have shown Lightfoot jockeying for position against former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas, Cook County Board Commissioner Brandon Johnson, U.S. Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García and businessman Willie Wilson. The other candidates include activist Ja’Mal Green, Chicago Alderman Sophia King, state Rep. Kam Buckner and Alderman Roderick Sawyer.

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From left, Chicago mayoral candidates Ja'Mal Green Sophia King, Kam Buckner, Wille Wilson, Brandon Johnson, Paul Vallas, current Mayor Lori Lightfoot, Roderick Sawyer and Jesus "Chuy" Garcia get ready to debate one another at WLS-TV ABC Channel 7's studio, Thursday, Jan. 19, 2023, in Chicago. (Tyler Pasciak/Chicago Sun-Times via AP/AP)

If no candidate gets a majority in the Feb. 28 election, the top two finishers Tuesday will advance to an April 4 runoff.

Throughout the campaign, candidates have not talked about much beyond Chicago but have prioritized issues that affect the region, such as crime, economic development and bringing riders back to public transportation.

McHenry County Board Chairman Mike Buehler said crime in Chicago is the top issue on his mind – whether it’s crime that spills into the suburbs or when taking his family into the city for a night out. Looking forward, public safety is something he wants to see the next mayor make a priority.

“Public safety has been an issue for many years,” Buehler said. “We travel a lot to the city for entertainment, and we want to make sure the streets are safe when we’re out there.”

Pierog said the frequency of reports about Chicago shootings concerns her.

“I think everyone is conscious of that right now, and it gives one pause,” Pierog said. “If I travel into Chicago with my car, am I going to be OK?”

[ Crime in Chicago raises concerns for would-be visitors from across northern Illinois ]

Different candidates have pitched crime-fighting ideas that include investing in youth employment, hiring more police and dividing up the city into quadrants to be monitored more closely.

David St. Clair, who lives in downtown Chicago but works as a paramedic in McHenry County, said he thinks Lightfoot has done a “horrible job” but believes she will be reelected. Overall, he said he doesn’t think Chicago is riddled with problems, despite it being portrayed that way.

“I think Chicago is a beautiful city,” he said. “Violence, killings, shootings, that’s in every major metropolitan area.”

Crime isn’t the only issue discussed in the mayor’s race that could affect northern Illinois residents. The Chicago mayor, who sets the city’s agenda and presides over its City Council meetings, could push policies or other ordinances that would affect nonresidents who visit there for work, entertainment, health care or other reasons.

Johnson, for example, had pitched a surcharge on Metra riders who commute into Chicago for work. CBS 2 in Chicago later reported that Johnson’s campaign said the Metra proposal no longer was under consideration.

Nevertheless, other proposals Johnson offered were aimed at making “the suburbs, airlines and ultra-rich pay their fair share to generate an estimated $800 million in new revenue,” according to his campaign website. That included reinstating the “Big Business Head Tax” on large companies’ employees, increase the jet fuel tax on airlines and boost the city’s hotel tax.

“The suburban tax base utilizes Chicago’s infrastructure to earn their disproportionately higher income, yet their taxes fund already wealthy towns,” according to Johnson’s website.

A Metra tax, as well as other usage taxes on those living beyond the city limits, may seem unfair on the surface, but there is a good reason for them, said Chris Mooney, a political science professor emeritus at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

The city of Chicago is the economic powerhouse for definitely northern Illinois, and I’d honestly say for Illinois. Whatever the city does, good or bad, it impacts the surrounding counties.

—  Kane County Board Chair Corinne Pierog

People who live outside Chicago but come into the city every day for work are using resources but not paying into them. Many coming in also have a higher socioeconomic status on average than the average Chicago resident, Mooney said.

“One of the [trade-offs] is you’ve given up the ability to have a say in the government where you’re working,” Mooney said. “It’s only fair they should pay something for these services.”

Other ideas being pitched for Metra include Buckner’s call for new lines to connect to key parts of the area, such as the West Loop and O’Hare International Airport, and García creating a “circle line” that would connect all of Chicago Transit Authority’s rail lines with Metra, according to WBEZ Chicago.

Some residents, however – both who travel to, or live in Chicago – said they don’t feel Metra’s lines are a problem in their current form.

Woodstock resident Julio Lozada was heading to Chicago on a recent Tuesday to celebrate Valentine’s Day. Originally from the city, he said he also has family there and is out there “all the time.”

He said he feels Metra is fine, and it’s more the Chicago Transit Authority rail lines that have problems. He also said he feels safe when he’s in the city.

“Chicago’s good,” he said. “You’ve got some rough neighborhoods, but it’s good to me.”

The mayor of Chicago also can sway policies that affect economic development.

Earlier this year, officials from all across northern Illinois announced an economic partnership that would see Chicago and surrounding counties and cities stop competing for business.

With Chicago being a key player in that initiative, Pierog said she isn’t worried that the partnership would go under if Lightfoot were to lose. The only concern, she said, is that whoever wins continues to help bolster the overall economy and business climate.

“It’s too vitally important for both the city and the region,” she said. “We did a deal that will supersede anybody else.”

The potential for the Chicago Bears to move out of the city was renewed earlier this month after the team finalized a deal to buy the former Arlington Heights racetrack property. The economic implications could mean billions of dollars being moved within the Chicago metropolitan area.

Lightfoot, who initially mocked the team for considering leaving, has since pitched upgrading historic Soldier Field. Still, that hasn’t stopped her opponents from blaming her for potentially losing the team. Despite this, the candidates are mixed on whether they’d try to keep the Bears in Chicago or let them walk away to the suburbs.

The mayor also holds some sway over getting Lake Michigan water to communities outside Chicago.

Joliet Mayor Bob O’Dekirk said he is concerned primarily with the Lake Michigan water project, which will see a 60-mile pipeline built from the lake to Joliet to bring water to potentially more than five communities. The costs have been estimated to run from about $600 million to $810 million.

O’Dekirk, who’s also running for reelection, said he’s not concerned with the race beyond that issue, and he feels as if there’s no risk of any of the potential candidates rolling it back.

“[The project] is beneficial to both parties,” he said. “Outside of that, there’s really no interest for Joliet in terms of what happens in Chicago.”

Another project that will benefit the broader region includes the overhaul of O’Hare. The Federal Aviation Administration approved $12 billion in improvements to the airports gates, hotels, terminals and other development. Part of that will include an entrance into the airport on the west side, which will benefit many suburbs.

It’s tough to tell what could come out of any administration, as candidates have spent little energy discussing the region as a whole, Mooney said. Although it would be ideal for candidates to think more regionally, there’s no reason for them to do so. As a result, in the campaign, they often don’t.

“It would be great for policymakers to think more broadly, especially in an area … like Chicago,” Mooney said. “But when push comes to shove, and they’re making those decisions, they care about their voters. That’s all.”

University of Illinois at Springfield professor emeritus Charles Wheeler, a former statehouse reporter, agreed with that sentiment. Still, he said, it’s also common for officials to win a race and then expand their focus.

As a result, there isn’t much lost when candidates don’t talk a lot about broader issues while on the campaign trail, Wheeler said.

“I saw that covering state government,” the former Chicago Sun-Times reporter said. “It’s not 100%, but it’s enough to make the system work.”