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Analysis | Friday Night Drive

Steve Soucie’s Week 7 playoff projection: Seeds move considerably, entrants do not

Just six new teams enter the draw

Steve Soucie's Week 7 IHSA football playoff projections

The results of Week 7 certainly had a huge effect on the seeds in various classes.

What it did not really do was alter the participants in the field as just six new teams found their way into the draw.

Outside of a few upsets such as Glenbard North’s win over Geneva most of the field changes were because of the most difficult element to predict in this whole exercise.

The Chicago Public League is responsible for half of the new entrants largely because it is the hardest group of teams to analyze because of a few of the variables that are unique to the league.

24 of the teams in the Chicago Public League don’t currently have a Week 9 opponent and an exercise that takes into account all upcoming games, that unknown variable wreaks havoc week to week on trying to put together this projection.

In addition, all of those 24 teams aren’t necessarily eligible to make the playoffs even if they meet all of the other standards that all other playoff qualifiers abide to.

Those four divisions (North Central, South Central, Southwest, West) send division winners into the playoffs. They also hold playoff games between the runner-up teams in each of those divisions in Week 9. Those matchups aren’t disclosed until after the conclusion of Week 8 games and there’s no methodology available to try to figure out how the teams will be paired beforehand.

And considering that those teams can come from anywhere on the enrollment landscape those unknown games suddenly become very interesting to the teams on classification bubble lines.

There’s also the interesting wrinkle in this process that declares that even if teams from those divisions have records worthy of placement in the playoff field, they won’t be going to the postseason unless they either win one of those divisions or win a runner-up playoff game, they won’t be playoff eligible.

Using this practice its easy to see how five to seven teams won’t make the field despite having five or more wins, which right now is exactly within the range of teams expected to make the field with four victories.

Speaking of that, this week’s projection includes eight four-win teams, most of which are found in the larger classifications.

Here is the Week 7 playoff projection for all eight classes:

Class 1A

Teams on the bubble between 1A/2A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Arthur, Cumberland, Deer Creek Mackinaw, Athens, Tuscola.

Class 2A

Teams on the bubble between 1A/2A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Arthur, Cumberland, Deer Creek Mackinaw, Athens, Tuscola.

Teams on the bubble between 2A/1A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Newman Central Catholic, Chicago Richards, Chicago Marshall, Sullivan, Chester.

Teams on the bubble between 2A/3A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Vandalia, Wilmington, Pana, DuQuoin, Erie.

Class 3A

Teams on the bubble between 2A/3A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Vandalia, Wilmington, Pana, DuQuoin, Erie.

Teams on the bubble between 3A/2A (from closest to bubble to farthest): West Frankfort, Stillman Valley, Aurora Central Catholic, Hillsboro, Oregon.

Teams on the bubble between 3A/4A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Benton, Bishop McNamara, Noble/Rauner, Manteno, IC Catholic.

Class 4A

Teams on the bubble between 3A/4A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Benton, Bishop McNamara, Noble/Rauner, Manteno, IC Catholic.

Teams on the bubble between 4A/3A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): South Shore, Columbia, Macomb, Alton Marquette, Breese Central.

Teams on the bubble between 4A/5A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Decatur MacArthur, Woodstock, Sterling, Woodstock North, Evergreen Park.

Class 5A

Teams on the bubble between 4A/5A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Decatur MacArthur, Woodstock, Sterling, Woodstock North, Evergreen Park.

Teams on the bubble between 5A/4A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Normal University, Corliss, Mahomet-Seymour, Noble/Bulls, Marion

Teams on the bubble between 5A/6A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Wauconda, Champaign Centennial, Washington, Lake View, Oak Forest.

Class 6A

Teams on the bubble between 5A/6A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Wauconda, Champaign Centennial, Washington, Lake View, Oak Forest.

Teams on the bubble between 6A/5A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Dunlap, Glenwood, Crete-Monee, Normal West, Burlington Central.

Teams on the bubble between 6A/7A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): East Moline United, Harlem, Wheaton Warrenville South, Bradley-Bourbonnais, Maine West.

Class 7A

Teams on the bubble between 6A/7A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): East Moline United, Harlem, Wheaton Warrenville South, Bradley-Bourbonnais, Maine West.

Teams on the bubble between 7A/6A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Carmel, Addison Trail, St. Charles North, Reavis, Willowbrook, Kenwood.

Teams on the bubble between 7A/8A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Belleville East, Edwardsville, Schaumburg, Glenbard West, Andrew.

Class 8A

Teams on the bubble between 7A/8A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Belleville East, Edwardsville, Schaumburg, Glenbard West, Andrew.

Teams on the bubble between 8A/7A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Elgin. Hinsdale Central, Maine South, Naperville North, Marist.

Steve Soucie

Steve Soucie

Steve Soucie is the Managing Editor of Friday Night Drive for Shaw Media. Also previously for Shaw Media, Soucie was the Sports Editor at the Joliet Herald News. Prior to that, Soucie worked at the Kankakee Daily Journal and for Pro Football Weekly.