This week’s projection looks a little bit different than the last few weeks.

As the season develops, I try to remove as many variables as I can verify to make the prediction as precise as possible.

But a variable was introduced early last week that no matter how much I investigated couldn’t be accounted for.

The IHSA received information that the enrollment numbers received from the Illinois State Board of Education earlier this summer for boundaried schools were not correct.

And new enrollment numbers were then adjusted for nearly every school in the state.

Over 400 schools’ enrollments changed, some by as few as 1 or 2 students and in some cases as many as 300.

On the whole, almost all of the enrollments went down. Just three schools saw an increase, which were relatively small, but while almost all the enrollments went down, they didn’t all go down at the same increment.

And when some of the smaller classifications are often divided by just a few students, enrollment switches of schools around the bubble lines of 10 or 15 students can have a seismic effect on where that bubble lands.

And while there are 16 new or returning teams in this week’s projected draw they didn’t have nearly the impact that the enrollment switch-ups did.

For example, there were eight new teams in this week’s Class 4A projected draw and six teams moved into the 5A draw. Most of those changes were direct reflections of the enrollment switch.

Here is the Week 4 playoff projection for all eight classes:

Class 1A

Teams on the bubble between 1A/2A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Cumberland, Arthur, Momence, Newman Central Catholic, Sullivan.

Class 2A

Teams on the bubble between 1A/2A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Cumberland, Arthur, Momence, Newman Central Catholic, Sullivan.

Teams on the bubble between 2A/1A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Chester, Riverdale, Mendon Unity, Rockridge, Ridgeview.

Teams on the bubble between 2A/3A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Stillman Valley, West Frankfort, Pleasant Plains, Vandalia, Wilmington

Class 3A

Teams on the bubble between 2A/3A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Stillman Valley, West Frankfort, Pleasant Plains, Vandalia, Wilmington

Teams on the bubble between 3A/2A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Aurora Central Catholic, Oregon, Fairfield, Collins, Mt. Carmel.

Teams on the bubble between 3A/4A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Columbia, Benton, South Shore, Bishop McNamara, Noble/Rauner.

Class 4A

Teams on the bubble between 3A/4A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Columbia, Benton, South Shore, Bishop McNamara, Noble/Rauner.

Teams on the bubble between 4A/3A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Macomb, Alton Marquette, Breese Central, Coal City, Carterville.

Teams on the bubble between 4A/5A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Noble/Bulls, Mahomet-Seymour, MacArthur, Woodstock, Sterling.

Class 5A

Teams on the bubble between 4A/5A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Mahomet-Seymour, Normal University, MacArthur, Woodstock, Sterling.

Teams on the bubble between 5A/4A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Noble/Bulls, Marion, Morton, Freeport, Wheaton Academy.

Teams on the bubble between 5A/6A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Normal West, Crete-Monee, Glenwood, Dunlap, Wauconda,

Class 6A

Teams on the bubble between 5A/6A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Normal West, Crete-Monee, Glenwood, Dunlap, Wauconda,

Teams on the bubble between 6A/5A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Kennedy, Burlington Central, Goode, Fenwick, Geneva.

Teams on the bubble between 6A/7A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): St. Charles North, Wheaton North, Addison Trail, Carmel, East Moline United.

Class 7A

Teams on the bubble between 6A/7A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): St. Charles North, Wheaton North, Addison Trail, Carmel, East Moline United.

Teams on the bubble between 7A/6A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Reavis, Willowbrook, Collinsville, Kenwood, Prosser

Teams on the bubble between 7A/8A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Plainfield North, Edwardsville, Schaumburg, Glenbard West, Glenbard East.

Class 8A

Teams on the bubble between 7A/8A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Plainfield North, Edwardsville, Schaumburg, Glenbard West, Glenbard East.

Teams on the bubble between 8A/7A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Belleville East, Elgin. Hinsdale Central, Maine South, Marist.