There are certain indicators that happen in the projection process that help qualify whether or not the field is likely to need four-win teams to fill the field of 256 teams.

One of them has already shown itself.

Just 245 playoff-eligible teams currently hold an above .500 record.

It isn’t ironclad. Because just because a team is under .500 doesn’t mean the playoff hopes have gone out the window.

But the fact remains from that group of teams that currently are under .500, those teams that are 1-2 must go 4-2 the rest of the way just to get to the basic standard qualifying standard. O-3 teams, the climb is harder, requiring a 5-1 run over the remaining portion of the season.

Some will make it from this group, obviously more from the 1-2 group of teams, but the list won’t be huge.

Conversely there are teams from the 2-1 group and even the 3-0 group that will fade after the fast start creating even more opportunity for teams that might fall short in the race for five wins.

Another wrinkle in the scenario is that there are four CPL conferences consisting of six teams each that may have teams that reach five or more victories, but if they don’t finish high enough in their conference standings they will be ineligible to qualify.

The current projection has seven 4-5 teams making the field at this time. And as has been noted before the projection is always based on what seems most likely to happen and the farther we are out from the end of the regular season the more variables that could be introduced toward the teams likely to make it to five.

Of course, there’s a path that would also find more teams bucking logical odds to make the five-win mark, similar to what happened last season when the field needed just one four-win team to fill the 256 slots.

But so far, that’s not the way it appears to be going.

We’ll learn more after the fifth week and even more after the seventh, but if that number continues to be slightly or even heavily below 256, that’s a good indicator of what it is likely going to take.

This week’s projection saw 17 new or returning teams to the projected draw.

As usual, the biggest changes in field construction came in the middle classifications with the breakline between 4A and 5A once again seeing the most change with three teams that were in the 4A draw shifting back up into 5A. Glenwood moved off the 5A/6A bubble on the lowside and jumped back to the 6A field in the first position.

Very little changed on the top and bottom of the bracket, as just two teams moved into the draw in each the Class 1A and Class 8A draws.

Here is the Week 3 playoff projection for all eight classes:

Class 1A

Teams on the bubble between 1A/2A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Arthur, Newman Central Catholic, Athens, Cumberland, Tuscola.

Class 2A

Teams on the bubble between 1A/2A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Arthur, Newman Central Catholic, Athens, Cumberland, Tuscola.

Teams on the bubble between 2A/1A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Momence, Crane, Riverdale, Sullivan, Rockridge.

Teams on the bubble between 2A/3A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Paxton, Wilmington, Pana, DuQuoin, Erie.

Class 3A

Teams on the bubble between 2A/3A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Paxton, Wilmington, Pana, DuQuoin, Erie.

Teams on the bubble between 3A/2A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Vandalia, Aurora Central Catholic, Stillman Valley, Oregon, West Frankfort.

Teams on the bubble between 3A/4A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Bishop McNamara, Staunton, Manteno, Paris, Belleville Althoff.

Class 4A

Teams on the bubble between 3A/4A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Bishop McNamara, Staunton, Manteno, Paris, Belleville Althoff.

Teams on the bubble between 4A/3A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Breese Mater Dei, Murphysboro, Phoenix, South Shore, Columbia.

Teams on the bubble between 4A/5A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Cahokia, Evergreen Park, Centralia, Montini, Sacred Heart Griffin.

Class 5A

Teams on the bubble between 4A/5A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Cahokia, Evergreen Park, Centralia, Montini, Sacred Heart Griffin.

Teams on the bubble between 5A/4A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Woodstock North, Sterling, Normal University, Decatur MacArthur, Mahomet-Seymour

Teams on the bubble between 5A/6A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Washington, Dunlap, Wauconda, Lake View, Kankakee.

Class 6A

Teams on the bubble between 5A/6A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Washington, Dunlap, Wauconda, Lake View, Kankakee.

Teams on the bubble between 6A/5A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Glenwood, Centennial, Peoria, Crete-Monee, Normal West.

Teams on the bubble between 6A/7A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): East Moline United, Oak Lawn Community, Quincy, Maine West, Bradley-Bourbonnais.

Class 7A

Teams on the bubble between 6A/7A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): East Moline United, Oak Lawn Community, Quincy, Maine West, Bradley-Bourbonnais.

Teams on the bubble between 7A/6A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): St. Charles North, Romeoville, Addison Trail, Harlem, Reavis.

Teams on the bubble between 7A/8A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Schaumburg, Plainfield North, Edwardsville, Glenbard West, Glenbard East.

Class 8A

Teams on the bubble between 7A/8A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Schaumburg, Plainfield North, Edwardsville, Glenbard West, Glenbard East.

Teams on the bubble between 8A/7A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Hinsdale Central, Belleville East, Marist, Maine South, Elgin.