Bracket madness: How the IHSA’s enrollment changes alter the football playoffs for 2025

After the first four state champions in 2024 were all benefactors of the IHSA’s multiplier waiver, what had been identified as a problem in previous seasons became a full-blown firestorm.

Change was needed to correct a program that was designed to make sure that schools that were struggling to compete wouldn’t also face the IHSA’s 1.65 multiplier making the process even more difficult.

But over time it became apparent that the waiver was something that was a bit easier to get than intended as well as not restrictive enough once a school got it.

This led to a cycle where a team would get a multiplier waiver, drop down a few classes and dominate, get moved back up because of the multiplier, and often cycle back down after a few years and the process continued.

That came to a head in 2024 where the 1A through 4A champions (Belleville Althoff, Chicago Christian, Montini and DePaul Prep) were all not subject to the 1.65 multiplier. In addition, three other programs (Joliet Catholic, Nazareth and Mount Carmel) avoided success formula designation because they had won two consecutive trophies, but not in the exact two-year period required to enact the success formula.

The previous policy to enact a multiplier required that a school win three playoff games over the two years previous to the most recent enrollment period. So for the 2023 and 2024 seasons (when the IHSA was using a two-year enrollment) if a school didn’t win at three playoff games in the 2021 and 2022 seasons they would not be multiplied.

This process led to just 14 schools being multiplied, including one (Sacred Heart Griffin) that also faced the success formula.

Brother Rice, Marist, Mount Carmel, St. Ignatius, St. Rita, St. Teresa, IC Catholic, Joliet Catholic, Nazareth, Providence, Fenwick, St. Francis and Loyola were the other schools that were subjected to the multiplier.

The new process for a waiver to be granted is that if you have won one playoff game over the previous three playoff seasons you are ineligible to be given a waiver. A program can appeal that, but the IHSA will review each individual case to decide if the multiplier waiver is warranted.

Under this new rule, the list of schools that are to be multiplied in the 2025 season ballooned to 44.

All 14 of the schools that were previously multiplied retain that status.

Private schools that joined the group with a multiplier distinction were St. Viator, Aurora Christian, Belleville Althoff, Bloomington Central Catholic, Breese Mater Dei, St. Laurence, Hope Academy, DePaul Prep, Jacksonville Routt, Benet, Montini, Carmel, Niles Notre Dame, Ottawa Marquette, Chicago Christian, Peoria Notre Dame, Quincy Notre Dame, Rockford Boylan, Rockford Lutheran, Newman Central Catholic and Wheaton Academy.

Non-boundaried programs that add the multiplier are Agricultural Science, Goode, King, Payton, Simeon, Urban Prep-Bronzeville, Westinghouse, Whitney Young and Normal University.

The success formula also saw an adjustment. The previous process involved if a team trophied (champion or runner-up) in the previous two seasons before the active enrollment period. That program would be moved up one class from where the past success had been achieved.

The process required distinct success in a specific two-year window. By that rule, both Nazareth and Mount Carmel were not subject to the success formula until 2025 despite having won three consecutive state titles.

Now the rule states that a team that earns a trophy in two of three seasons will be subjected to the success formula. As such, Mount Carmel (7A to 8A), Nazareth (5A to 6A) and Joliet Catholic (5A to 6A) will be subjected to the success formula. Additionally, the lone school that had the success formula in the last two-year enrollment period, Sacred Heart Griffin, no longer has the designation.

The IHSA is also returning to one-year enrollment to classify where programs will be placed. Those numbers have largely been released and a further study of them opens the window to where teams could fall in this new enrollment universe.

Here are the top 15 schools in enrollment increases with likely outcome to their playoff status should they qualify:

Here are the top 15 schools in enrollment decreases with likely outcome to their playoff status should they qualify:

While there are some schools that didn’t make either of the two lists above the more important move was made in terms of how an enrollment shift made their ranking place change against all other playoff eligible schools in the state.

As of publication, 495 schools in Illinois will be playoff-eligible in 2025 and they are stacked in order of smallest (Madison) to largest (Berwyn-Cicero Morton).

For the purpose of this discussion any reference used to moving up the board is a school that is moving closer or into smaller classifications and moving down the board is moving closer to or into larger classifications.

Schools that moved the most slots up the board were Urban Prep-Bronzeville (up 125 spots), Noble/Muchin (102), Englewood STEM (98), Phoenix (81) and Crane (81).

And while those moves would make an alteration to some playoff brackets, some schools that made substantial moves up the board but a little bit farther down this list could have a much larger impact.

For example, Cary-Grove went up 32 spots on the list. Considering how close the Trojans have been to 5A/6A bubble in previous season, a 32 spot drop on the list puts Cary-Grove firmly in the discussion to possibly drop to 5A.

Another very interesting school despite moving up just 16 spots on the board is Batavia. The Bulldogs are always seemingly riding the bubble between 6A and 7A, but those 16 spots make betting on the likelihood of Batavia ending up in the 6A field a much stronger possibility.

Prairie Ridge is another one that merits mention. Enrollment declines have led to the Wolves moving from 6A to 5A since winning a 6A title in 2017, but another 100-plus student drop in overall enrollment and a 22 spot drop on the board puts Class 4A on the board as a possibility. Mind you, the percentage isn’t high for that happening, but it also isn’t zero.

Other schools that dropped at least 20 spots on the board whose classification stock could potentially change are Stillman Valley, Rolling Meadows, Fenwick, Kaneland, Bloomington, Peotone and IC Catholic.

There’s obviously a reverse effect to this as well.

The following schools were the programs that dropped the farthest down the board: DePaul Prep (180 spots), Belleville Althoff (135), Niles Notre Dame (132), King (130) and St. Laurence (128).

DePaul Prep’s was the most dramatic move for multiple reasons. First, DePaul’s enrollment spiked significantly since the previous two-year enrollment spike and then prior to the school’s magical postseason run last year they were also not multiplied.

The adjusted enrollment number then multiplied moved DePaul from being a large 4A to resting on the 7A/8A bubble.

Other schools that made significant drops on the sheet that will almost certainly make a impact on their potential new playoff fields are Quincy Notre Dame (102 spots, 2A to 3A), St. Laurence (128, 4A to 7A), Hope Academy (115, 1A to 3A) and Montini (94, 3A to 5A).

What does all of this mean?

Using a three-year win model to project where the playoff breaks could fall, the brackets look dramatically different. (Look for the full results of this exercise in the upcoming weeks at Friday Night Drive).

The biggest impact seems to come in a couple of areas. With so many teams shifting down on the overall list, some schools that typically resided on the bubble between two classifications but often seemed to end up in the larger of the two classifications when all was said and done. Those schools now have a much larger likelihood of now finding themselves in the smaller of the two classifications. Examples of this phenomena are the aforementioned situations laid out for Batavia and Cary-Grove, as well as Morris, Lemont, Kaneland, Sterling, Sacred Heart Griffin and Quincy.