The case to bet on the Bears’ offense during a Week 5 matchup at Vikings

The Chicago Bears head to Minneapolis this week for a NFC North matchup with the Minnesota Vikings.

From a betting perspective, the Bears are a 7.5-point underdog after getting a full touchdown via the opening spread at Caesars Sportsbook. The total has moved up from 43 to 44 at Caesars Sportsbook, which is the official odds partner of Bet Chicago Sports.

If the total seems high, I don’t blame you. This would be the highest total in a Bears’ game so far this season, surpassing the previous mark of 41.5 during Week 2 against the Green Bay Packers. The Bears are 3-1 to the under entering Week 5, according to the database at sportsoddshistory.com.

It is easy to suggest the total is higher due to the talented playmakers on the Vikings’ offense. The Vikings are averaging 21.5 points per game, and receiver Justin Jefferson has proven to be one of the better offensive weapons in the league.

All of that is true, however, there is a case for why the total suggests the Bears are primed for their best offensive performance of the season.

Only six teams in the league are giving up more yards per play than the Vikings, who are surrendering 6.0 yards per play to opposing offenses. Opponents are posting a rushing success rate of 50.9% against the Vikings, a mark that ranks 29th in all of football via rbsdm.com. They also rank 26th in rushing EPA (expected points added) as a defensive unit.

The Bears prefer to run the ball, and have leaned on their rushing attack to start the season. They are fifth in the league with an average of 5.2 yards per attempt, while ranking third in both rushing attempts (136) and yards (709) thus far.

Where the Bears have struggled is through the air. Second-year quarterback Justin Fields has only attempted 67 passes, which ranks 32nd and is 10 attempts fewer than a player like Jimmy Garoppolo who has only made two starts.

But Fields did post his best passing performance in a loss to the New York Giants last week. Fields finished with a season-high in both completions (11) and attempts (22), surpassing previous season-best marks of eight and 17, respectively. The 174 passing yards against the Giants ended up being 53 more yards than what he finished with in the 2022 opener against the 49ers.

In that game, the Bears went 0-for-3 in the red zone and had to settle for four field goals in a 20-12 defeat. While the execution when it mattered most wasn’t there, it was a good sign to see the offense finally able to sustain some drives on the offensive end.

So, can Fields and this offense build on that momentum against a Vikings defense that has already surrendered over 1,000 passing yards on the year? That remains to be seen, but this matchup appears to be a good opportunity for the Bears to show some signs of life on offense at the very least.

The Bears have yet to score more than 23 points in a game this season, and are averaging 16 points per contest. Yet Caesars Sportsbook has set a team total of 17.5 for the Bears, with the juice priced at -110 on each side. This game likely won’t go over unless the Bears’ offense is able to do its part.

As a result, rather than touch the point total of 44, I think the best way to approach this contest is by betting on the Bears’ team total instead.

Lean: Bears Over 17.5 (-110)