Browns vs. Steelers best bet: Target this player prop ahead of Thursday Night Football

Well, there is certainly a football game to watch tonight.

A Thursday Night Football matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns doesn’t seem too exciting, especially since last week’s TNF contest gave us a Chiefs-Chargers showdown. But you better believe we will all be watching this game, and it would help keep us interested by having some action on the game.

I thought I would end up on the Steelers in this one, as I wrote in my spread picks column earlier this week, but the line moved down and I’m not comfortable with the current number. Instead, I’ll be turning to the player prop market for tonight’s game between a pair of AFC North foes.

I’m on the under for Chase Claypool’s receiving yardage prop of 39.5 yards, a line that can be found at Caesars Sportsbook today. Sign up with our friends at Caesars Sportsbook to take advantage of their new-user offer.

Claypool has yet to hit this mark through two weeks, and it hasn’t been particularly close. He caught four balls for 18 yards in a Week 1 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. Claypool recorded four catches for 26 yards last weekend against the New England Patriots.

More importantly, I’m not sure Mitch Trubisky is the right quarterback to take advantage of Claypool’s strengths. Claypool, who is a big slot receiver, is honestly a big play waiting to happen and best utilized on deep balls. That can certainly be concerning when targeting an under on that player archetype.

But that is not suited to fit Trubisky’s game, at least not what he has shown us so far this season. Trubisky, who started his career with the Chicago Bears, is averaging 5.1 yards per attempt on 71 passes through two weeks. It is the lowest yards per attempt by any quarterback with at least 25 passes entering Week 3 of the NFL season.

Claypool has an aDOT (average depth of target) of 5.67 through two games, which helps highlight why he might be limited as long as Trubisky is under center. Credit the Steelers for giving Claypool some rushing attempts in the opener, but I’d lower your expectations for him as a receiving threat for now.

Pick: Under 39.5 receiving yards for Chase Claypool (-119)